By Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy & Chief Economist from Oliver’s Insights, AMP Capital, 27 March 2018
Key points
- Australian growth is likely to be weak over the next year or so and this will prompt further monetary easing and fiscal stimulus.
- However, several positives suggest recession is unlikely:
- the current account deficit has collapsed;
- the $A helps stabilise the economy;
- the drag from falling mining investment is over;
- there is scope for extra fiscal stimulus;
- infrastructure spending is booming;
- there has been no sign of panic property selling;
- economic policy remains sensible;
- population growth remains strong;
- and the RBA can still do more