In this edition of Oliver’s Insights, Shane Oliver looks at the projections for the coming budget deficit and the impact on Australia’s net public debt due to coronavirus, and whether it is affordable. Key Points Australia’s federal budget deficit is expected to peak at around $200bn in 2020-21, or around 10% of GDP which will be the highest since the end... Read more
In a time when blanket coverage of coronavirus and its impact on the economy can lead to a lot of confusion, Shane Oliver this week discusses the good news, the bad news, and what it all means for investors. Key Points After a strong rally, in the short-term shares are vulnerable to bleak economic and earnings news. However, positive news... Read more
In Shane Oliver’s latest article he discusses quantitative easing, the role it is playing in the coronavirus economic rescue globally, and the implications for investors. Key Points Central bank support to ensure the flow of money and credit through economies is an essential part of the global and Australian coronavirus economic rescue. This has increasingly involved quantitative easing which entails... Read more
More from Shane Oliver this week on the coronavirus pandemic and its impact on the way we live and as a result on investment markets. In this article Shane addresses some questions, such as: why does a big part of the economy have to go into “hibernation”? how long might it be for? how big will the hit to the economy... Read more
Shane Oliver looks back at the bear markets in Australia since 1900, and discusses whether we are headed for a recession, a depression or something unprecedented. He asserts that growth could rebound quickly once the virus is under control and policy stimulus impacts. Key Points Global share markets have fallen into a bear market, but whether this turns out to... Read more
We can always count on Shane Oliver to keep us balanced and focused on the basics during times of uncertainty. In his latest article, he reminds us of five critical aspects of investing in times of market stress. Key Points Successful investing can be really difficult in times like the present with immense uncertainty around the impact of coronavirus on the... Read more
The Correction in Equity Markets Caused by Coronavirus Fears
Written by Kate O'Brien, Director - Edney Ryan Wealth ManagementWe have seen a major correction in all equity markets around the globe, as investors react to the impact of coronavirus on company profits. Travel bans and factory closures will certainly have an impact on global economic growth and activity. Uncertainty and fear are leading many investors to sell indiscriminately as they try to reduce their overall exposure to the... Read more
Shane Oliver’s latest article looks at the increasing spread of coronavirus. Key Points: While reported new coronavirus cases in China have slowed, the pickup in cases outside China has led to a renewed sharp fall in share markets, commodity prices and bond yields. Our base case is that the outbreak will be contained allowing share markets and bond yields to... Read more
By Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy & Chief Economist from Oliver’s Insights, AMP Capital, 19th February 2020 Shane Oliver’s latest article addresses the concern that central banks are distorting market forces, leading to overvaluation of prices for assets like shares and property. Key Points: Shares are vulnerable to a short-term correction. But with inflation low, and as long as... Read more
Shane Oliver’s latest article looks at coronavirus and other worries, and how to turn down the noise around investing. Key Points: The coronavirus outbreak is just another of a long list of worries. Our natural inclination to zoom in on negative news combined with a massive ramp-up in the availability of information is arguably making us worse investors: more fearful,... Read more