By Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy & Chief Economist from Oliver’s Insights, AMP Capital, Edition 27 2015 Key Points As expected the RBA left interest rates on hold. While it’s a close call, chances are that the RBA will cut rates again before year end reflecting the poor business investment outlook, greater than expected weakness in commodity prices, the... Read more
By Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy & Chief Economist from Oliver’s Insights, AMP Capital, Edition 24 2015 Key Points Just as the rise in Chinese shares had little economic impact it’s hard to see the pullback having a significant economic impact either. Chinese economic growth is likely to remain “around 7%” with monetary and fiscal easing helping. The volatility... Read more
By Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy & Chief Economist from Oliver’s Insights, AMP Capital, Edition 23 2015 Key Points The Greek No vote means more uncertainty ahead regarding Greece, with significantly heightened risk of aGreek exit from the Euro. The threat of a flow on to other Eurozone countries is likely to keep markets on edge in the short... Read more
By Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy & Chief Economist from Oliver’s Insights, AMP Capital, Edition 22 2015 Key Points A “reform for funding” deal between Greece and its creditors looks likely and may now be agreed this week. This would be positive for Eurozone assets. It would then have to pass various parliaments though. Alternatively if no deal is... Read more
By Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy & Chief Economist from Oliver’s Insights, AMP Capital, Edition 21 2015 Key Points This note focuses on the debate around the four major “tax concessions” in Australia: negative gearing, the capital gains tax discount, dividend imputation and superannuation. Removing negative gearing for property investment and dividend imputation will only add to distortions in... Read more
By Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy & Chief Economist from Oliver’s Insights, AMP Capital, Edition 18 2015 Key points In response to pressure from APRA, lenders are starting to tighten lending conditions to property investors. This is designed to slow property investor lending, particularly into the strong Sydney property market, while at the same time allowing the RBA flexibility... Read more
By Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy & Chief Economist from Oliver’s Insights, AMP Capital, Edition 26 2014 Key points Dividends are great for investors as decent dividends augur well for earnings growth, they provide a degree of security in uncertain and volatile times, they are likely to comprise a relatively high proportion of returns going forward and they provide... Read more
By Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy & Chief Economist from Oliver’s Insights, AMP Capital, Edition 21 2014 Key points on Share Market Risks Concerns about US shares being overvalued are overdone. The conditions are still not in place for a major top in share markets: valuations are reasonable, the global economy is on the mend, monetary conditions are easy... Read more
By Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy & Chief Economist from Oliver’s Insights, AMP Capital, Edition 18 2014 Key points Australia faces three key structural challenges: the end of the commodity price boom is leading to slower growth in national income; this is putting pressure on the budget; & it’s all occurring when productivity growth has slowed. To get growth... Read more
By Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy & Chief Economist from Oliver’s Insights, AMP Capital, Edition 12 2014 Key points Australian housing has seen a normal response to lower interest rates. House prices are up and a building boom is on the way. This will help the economy rebalance. The home buyer market is a long way from the bubble... Read more