By Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy & Chief Economist from Oliver’s Insights, AMP Capital, Edition 21 2016 Key points The vote by Britain to leave the European Union poses risks for UK, European and global financial and economic stability that may linger for a while. However, it needs to be kept in perspective and is unlikely to plunge the... Read more
By Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy & Chief Economist from Oliver’s Insights, AMP Capital, Edition 20 2016 Key points Uncertainty around the outcome of Britain’s referendum on whether to Remain in or Leave the European Union has reached fever pitch. While a victory for the Leave campaign will likely see more volatility, the global economic consequences have likely been... Read more
By Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy & Chief Economist from Oliver’s Insights, AMP Capital, Edition 19 2016 Key points The success of Trump and Sanders in the US, the close Brexit vote and the Australian Federal Election campaign suggest median voters have shifted to the left and support for economic rationalist policies has fallen. The risk is that a... Read more
By Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy & Chief Economist from Oliver’s Insights, AMP Capital, Edition 10 2016 Key points China’s economy is seeing an ongoing transition from manufacturing & investment to services & consumption at the same time that it is continuing to deregulate. This transition will entail slower growth than seen last decade and bouts of uncertainty. However,... Read more
By Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy & Chief Economist from Oliver’s Insights, AMP Capital, Edition 9 2016 Key points Very expensive housing and high household debt leave Australian housing vulnerable. However, in the absence of either a recession or much higher interest rates a property crash looks unlikely. The Sydney and Melbourne property markets are likely to slow further... Read more
By Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy & Chief Economist from Oliver’s Insights, AMP Capital, Edition 7 2016 Key points There is a seemingly long list of global political issues that could affect investors this year: the US presidential election, a vote on Brexit, the rise of populism in Europe, tensions in the South China Sea, tensions between Saudi Arabia... Read more
By Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy & Chief Economist from Oliver’s Insights, AMP Capital, Edition 6 2016 Key points Historically, bear markets in Australian shares have seen an average fall of 33% over 18 months. However, this masks a huge range. 65% of bear markets have seen gains over the 12 months following an initial 20% decline in share... Read more
By Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy & Chief Economist from Oliver’s Insights, AMP Capital, Edition 4 2016 Key points Assets with decent and sustainable yields are attractive in an environment of return volatility as they provide greater return certainty. Bank term deposit rates have collapsed, so it makes sense to continue to look elsewhere for income. Dividends tend to... Read more
By Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy & Chief Economist from Oliver’s Insights, AMP Capital, Edition 3 2016 Key points Oil prices are down more than 70% from their levels two years ago driven by a combination of a surge in supply relative to demand and a rise in the value of the $US. Further weakness down to $US20/barrel is... Read more
By Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy & Chief Economist from Oliver’s Insights, AMP Capital, Edition 1 2016 Key points: Financial markets have started the year on a rough note as last year’s worries about China and global growth in the face of US monetary tightening continue. This could drive more short term weakness. However, in the absence of US/global... Read more