Investments

By Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy & Chief Economist from Oliver’s Insights, AMP Capital, Edition 6 2016 Key points Historically, bear markets in Australian shares have seen an average fall of 33% over 18 months. However, this masks a huge range. 65% of bear markets have seen gains over the 12 months following an initial 20% decline in share... Read more

By Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy & Chief Economist from Oliver’s Insights, AMP Capital, Edition 4 2016 Key points Assets with decent and sustainable yields are attractive in an environment of return volatility as they provide greater return certainty. Bank term deposit rates have collapsed, so it makes sense to continue to look elsewhere for income. Dividends tend to... Read more

By Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy & Chief Economist from Oliver’s Insights, AMP Capital, Edition 3 2016 Key points Oil prices are down more than 70% from their levels two years ago driven by a combination of a surge in supply relative to demand and a rise in the value of the $US. Further weakness down to $US20/barrel is... Read more

By Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy & Chief Economist from Oliver’s Insights, AMP Capital, Edition 41 2015 Key points: 2015 has been a messy year for investors as worries about China, emerging countries and the Fed caused volatility and uneven returns across asset classes. Australian shares continued to underperform. 2016 is likely to see continued okay but uneven global... Read more

By Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy & Chief Economist from Oliver’s Insights, AMP Capital, Edition 36 2015 Key points Australian housing remains overvalued and this has one hand in hand with high household debt. Against  this, supply has been constrained and there has not been a deterioration in lending standards. The hot Sydney and Melbourne property markets are showing... Read more

By Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy & Chief Economist from Oliver’s Insights, AMP Capital, Edition 33 2015 Key points Periods of declines and volatility in share markets are a normal part of the way they work. Share market falls tend to be deepest when associated with recession (particularly US recessions). Share market falls boost the medium term return potential... Read more

Brad Matthews, the Hillross economist, has written an article on the recent falls in Global Markets. As I write markets in Australia have bucked the newspaper headlines this morning and are up nearly 2%. We are certainly in volatile times when good asset allocation is very important.

A bias towards investing in local shares and property is common and understandable. Unfortunately for many Australian investors this means missing out on the potential rewards of international investments – healthy returns and risk reduction through diversification of their investments across asset classes. Each asset class usually exhibits different risk and returns to various market cycles and events. In turn... Read more

By Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy & Chief Economist from Oliver’s Insights, AMP Capital, Edition 18 2015 Key points In response to pressure from APRA, lenders are starting to tighten lending conditions to property investors. This is designed to slow property investor lending, particularly into the strong Sydney property market, while at the same time allowing the RBA flexibility... Read more

By Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy & Chief Economist from Oliver’s Insights, AMP Capital, Edition 21 2014 Key points on Share Market Risks Concerns about US shares being overvalued are overdone. The conditions are still not in place for a major top in share markets: valuations are reasonable, the global economy is on the mend, monetary conditions are easy... Read more